It begins again: Rational Pastime projections for the 2015 postseason. Tonight, the RP model has the Houston Astros as slight favorites over the New York Yankees. Were these teams evenly matched, the Yanks would be favored 54-46, thanks to home field advantage. However, my RP Score system believes that the Astros are a better team.
In tomorrow's game, my system finds that the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates are a pretty even match for exactly the same reason.
As for the rest of the playoffs, the model—which relies on the Log 5 equation and Matt Swarz's numbers for home field advantage—picks the Toronto Blue Jays to win it all as nearly 2:1 favorites. In the Senior Circuit, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the most likely to make it to the World Series, and are 7:1 to win it all. Of the two teams playing tonight, I find the Astros twice as likely to take home the Commissioner's trophy.
Stay tuned for day-by-day updates this October (and probably November!).