24 June 2015

St. Louis Cardinals Sitting Pretty Despite Injuries


Injuries to Matt Adams, Matt Holliday and Adam Wainwright have yet to stop the juggernaut that is the 2015 St. Louis Cardinals. At the start of play on June 24, 2015, the NL Central leader remains atop the RP Score list with a rating of .580. Though this is significantly lower than their posted win rate of .657, the disparity only goes to show that the Cardinals could regress significantly toward the mean and still be the best team in baseball.

Thanks to their league-leading numbers, and thanks to the parity that currently pervades the sport, the Cards are the only team that's more likely than not to win 100 games. The latest simulation puts St. Louis' median win total at 101, with a 95% chance that they will win at least 93. Incidentally, the low end of the simulation's confidence interval its above the median projected win total of every other team.

One reason for these rosy projections, besides team quality, is the schedule: the remainder of the Cardinals' match-ups average out to a weighted RP Score of only .484, and 52% of those contests will take place at home.


And as for those injuries? Since Wainwright went down, the Cardinals have slightly improved their RP Score, from .576 to .580. Likewise, the Cards have improved their score by .008 since both Adams' and Holliday's injuries. This is a team that really knows how to pick up the slack.