29 March 2015

Rating Systems Challenge: Chalky Day, Advantage Sagarin


This post is part of a series tracking the successes and failures of various NCAA Men's Basketball ranking systems and bracket models throughout the 2015 NCAA Tournament. Check out the full series.

Yesterday was a day of reckoning for several of the systems in the 2015 Rating Systems Challenge. The ten that picked Arizona (2) to upset Wisconsin (1) were disappointed, and suffered heavily in the standings.



Ten systems leapfrogged the previous leader, ESPN Decision Tree, which is now performing worse than Pure Chalk. Today, Jeff Sagarin's computer ratings lead the pack outright, while the #3 ESPN National Bracket is very well positioned moving forward.


Though only nine systems are outperforming chalk in total points, and only four of those are outperforming in correct picks, the pool as a whole still ranks #11 among all ESPN Tournament Challenge groups.

Today may prove to be another day of reckoning for the six systems—ESPN BPI, Massey Ratings, Nolan Power Index, LRMC Bayesian, Pomeroy, ESPN Computer and ESPN Decision Tree—that expect Gonzaga (2) to upset Duke (1). BPI is the only system among them currently outperforming chalk, standing to gain the most from an upset in the South region.

Stay tuned to see how these systems perform after the second day of Elite Eight play.

Follow along between posts: check out the Rational Pastime Tournament Challenge Group.

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