30 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: Royals Fall to Baseball's Newest Dynasty

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

Kauffman Stadium • jimcchouCreative Commons 2.0

In a close series with few close games, we finally got the contest we were waiting for. The game, the Series, the entire season was in question right up until the very last at bat, when a possessed Madison Bumgarner, on two days rest, induced Salvador Perez to pop out with the tying run ninety feet away. The out marked the end of a Cinderella run by the Kansas City Royals, who sneaked into the postseason for the first time in nearly three decades and rode all the way to the bottom of the 9th of Game 7 of the Fall Classic before their carriage reverted to squash form.

That out also marked the coronation of a new dynasty, awarding the Commissioner's Trophy to the San Francisco Giants for the third time in five years, a feat not accomplished since the New York Yankees in 1999 (and, before that, the Oakland A's in 1974).


29 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: Royals' Hopes Restored in Paris on the Plains

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

Kauffman Stadium • Justin BrockieCreative Commons 2.0

Game 7: it's one of the most thrilling concepts in sports, when a grueling marathon comes down to one final sprint. It's a pleasure we enjoy tonight, as the World Series is going seven for the first time since, well, 2011, when another team from Missouri surprised the nation. We arrive here thanks to the Kansas City Royals' pounding of the San Francisco Giants in what could otherwise have resulted in a celebration by the Bay.

Not only do the Royals stay alive, they take the initiative as well. At 55%, they are narrow favorites going into the final game, largely due to the setting rather than the talent of the hometown ball club. That's a 29% boost over their previous numbers following Game 5, when they trailed 3-2. According to FanGraphs, the Royals increased their chances of winning Game 6 by a whopping 42.2% in their seven-run bottom of the 2nd. Combined with Rational Pastime's WS% numbers, this implies that the Royals increased their chances of winning the World Series by 22% in that half inning alone.


27 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: Giants Push Royals to Brink

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.


Having taken two of three at home, the San Francisco Giants are now one win away from their third World Series title in five years. Yesterday's game was only the third after which Madison Bumgarner & Co. led the World Series Probability standings, and their claim on the top spot represents the third time that the top spot has switched between them and the Kansas City Royals. The Giants lead the Royals even though their position is substantially hamstrung by Kansas City's home field advantage in the remaining games.


26 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: Giant Rebound Yields Brand New Series

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

AT&T Park • Photo credit: Eugene KimCreative Commons 2.0

In the fourth game of this seesaw series, the San Francisco Giants have evened up the Fall Classic 2-2, putting both teams in nearly the same position where they started, probability wise. With three possible games remaining, the Kansas City Royals maintain a slim lead in World Series expectancy, 52-48.


25 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: A Royal Coronation?

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

AT&T Park • Photo credit: HarshLightCreative Commons 2.0

Three games into the 2014 World Series, the most likely result is now a victory by the Kansas City Royals. Having lost their first game at home, the San Francisco Giants woke up today 7-3 underdogs. Worse for them, the brief home field advantage that the Boys by the Bay enjoyed has now evaporated; the playing field is level once again. Though the journey is far from over, Kansas City is now decidedly in the driver's seat.


23 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: Royals Get Even

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

Kauffman Stadium • Photo credit: jimcchouCreative Commons 2.0

What the Kansas City Royals suffered in Game 1 they dealt back in Game 2. Against the San Francisco Giants, a five-run slugfest boosted the Royals' chances of winning it all by ~12% in the bottom of the sixth inning alone (if you combine my model's numbers with FanGraphs' Win Expectancy figures). The full win itself was responsible for a ~14% increase in their World Series probability.

It wasn't enough to help the Royals regain the WS% lead, however. By splitting the first two games in Kansas City, San Francisco now enjoys home field advantage, leaving them slim 53% favorites to take home the Commissioner's Trophy.


22 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: Giants End Royals' Streak, Set High Water Mark

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

Kauffman Stadium • Photo credit: State FarmCreative Commons 2.0

Two record streaks came to an end last night. The Kansas City Royals were enjoying the longest winning streak in postseason history (eight games) when they ran into the human buzz saw that is Madison Bumgarner. The San Francisco Giants' ace was enjoying a streak of his own, one which came to the end when Salvador Perez's homer plated the first postseason run against Bumgarner in 21 innings.

Perez notwithstanding, it was never really much of a contest, the eventual winning run having crossed before Bumgarner even took the mound. The Royals lost their first World Series game in 29 years by a 7-1 drubbing, sending the Giants to the top of the heap for the first time this October according to the Rational Pastime model.


21 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: Odds about Even in Fall Classic

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

Kauffman Stadium • Photo credit: Ian MunroeCreative Commons 2.0

Tonight begins one of the most improbable World Series match-ups in recent memory. Both teams are the lowest seed in their league. Neither one enjoyed home field advantage after the play-in round. At the start of LSD play, I placed the odds of a San Francisco-Kansas City World Series at just under 3%. Vegas' expectation was about the same. Among LDS contenders, I ranked the Giants and Royals 6th and 7th most likely to reach the final stage. Their Power Scores were equally pathetic.

Yet here we are.

The Kansas City Royals have faced the #1 and #2 seeds, enjoying four home games out of eight (including the play-in), but nevertheless set a postseason record with eight straight victories. The San Francisco Giants had to win on the road just to reach the postseason, promptly disposed of the best team in the National League (the Washington Nationals), and then swiftly dispatched a significantly weaker St. Louis Cardinals squad.

My model underestimated both squads, and what we're left with is a match-up of equals. Equal in seeding, the Royals and Giants are equal in talent with a Power Score of .534, the latter fractionally ahead, both trailing eight teams that have since waived goodbye. As a result, both teams are essentially an equal shot at winning it all, the Royals with an insignificant 51-49 edge.


17 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: San Fran Golden in Pennant Clincher

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

AT&T Park • Photo credit: randychiuCreative Commons 2.0

The games were close, but the series wasn't. Knocking off the defending NL Champion St. Louis Cardinals, the San Francisco Giants are heading to the World Series for the first time since all the way back in 2012. It was only the second time in a rather unpredictable postseason that the Rational Pastime model picked a series correctly.

Standing in the way of the Giants' third World Series Championship in five years are the surging Royals of Kansas City, the slightest of favorites in the upcoming contest.


16 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: Orioles Fly Home for Winter

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

Rainbow over Kauffman Stadium • Photo credit: Kari SullivanCreative Commons 2.0

Joe Posnanski shared a quote that's so fitting that I have no choice but to steal it.



Sure, we could have believed that a Kansas City Royals team that just barely squeaked into the playoffs would win eight straight games and reach the World Series, defeating the #1 and #2 AL seeds along the way, not permitting their opponent a single victory and taking many games by a single run and several in extras. I'm sure many—primarily located within driving distance of Kauffman Stadium—believed that they would see their Royals play in the Fall Classic this year.

But most didn't, and that's what's so great about baseball (and sports in general): it defies our expectations in the most magical way.

Many more now believe that the Kansas City Royals could win their first World Series since 1985. Little in sports is impossible. The crazy thing is, this scenario is no longer even improbable. Should they face either the St. Louis Cardinals or the San Francisco Giants, the latter of whom are now one game away from the World Series themselves, they will be my model's favorites.


15 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: Giants Find Their Heart in San Francisco

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

AT&T Park • Photo credit: Bryce EdwardsCreative Commons 2.0

Tuesday saw the San Francisco Giants regain the upper hand at home against the St. Louis Cardinals, followed by the Kansas City Royals' seventh consecutive postseason victory. The Royals' win set a postseason high in WS%, just short of the 50% mark, and pushed the Baltimore Orioles to the brink of elimination.


14 October 2014

My BBA Votes: The Stan Musial Award

Cardinal • Photo Credit: Dakota L.Creative Commons 3.0

Every season, BBA writers vote for their choices in the Stan Musial Award, picking the best players of 2014 in each league regardless of position. This being a modern analytics blog, I relied primarily on the new stats in my voting. Metrics that I leaned on heavily for both pitchers and hitters include Win Probability Added (WPA), Leverage-adjusted WPA (WPA/LI), Run Expectancy (RE24), fWAR and RA9-WAR

I do like to consider rate stats. However, taking rate stats into account is difficult when comparing hitters to pitchers and vice versa. There's no real rate stat to which anyone gives equal weight when it comes to both pitching and offense. As with the Gossage and Johnson Awards, I considered runs allowed per nine innings (RA9), SIERA and FIP for pitchers. For batters I used run-expectancy-weighted On Base Percentage, or wOBA. I standardized each of these values (inverting the pitcher stats, since lower numbers are better), and compared their standard deviations from the mean to make a combined list of pitching and hitting rate leaders.


My picks are as follows:

American League #1: Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels)

Mike Trout, who should have been AL MVP the last two years and will probably win it this year, posted a wOBA of .402 (3rd, AL qualifiers). But where he really stands out is in win probability added. Trout's 6.88 WPA is over two wins better than the next best AL contender, Michael Brantley, and his 64.54 RE24 beats AL #2 Victor Martinez by 13 runs. In addition, his WPA /LI is second only to Jose Bautista's (5.38 to 5.55). According to fWAR, Mike Trout's 7.8 wins above replacement make him the most valuable player of the 2014 season. This choice was nearly as easy as my next one.

National League #1: Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers)

It's more common than we think that a pitcher is the best player in his league. This year, Clayton Kershaw removed all doubt. Vying for a place on the mantle of all-time great pitchers, the Dodgers ace posted league bests in RA9-WAR (7.9) and fWAR (7.2). His 5.47 WPA led the National League, whereas his 5.37 WPA/LI and 48.56 RE24 finished second only to Giancarlo Stanton. His domination of RA9, SIERA and FIP--finishing tops in all three MLB-wide--cement his place at the top of my NL ballot.


Runners Up: American League

My BBA Votes: The Walter Johnson Award

Walter Johnson with Pres. Calvin Coolidge • Library of Congress

Every season, BBA writers vote for their choices in the Walter Johnson Award, picking the best pitchers of 2014 in each league. This being a modern analytics blog, I relied primarily on the new stats in my voting. Metrics that I leaned heavily on include Win Probability Added (WPA), Leverage-adjusted WPA (WPA/LI), Run Expectancy (RE24), runs allowed per nine innings (RA9), SIERA, FIP, fWAR and RA9-WAR. My picks are as follows:

American League #1: Felix Hernandez (Seattle Mariners)

I could have voted for either HRH King Felix this year or the Indians' Cory Kluber. Both tied in games started for the AL lead and nearly tied in innings pitched. But Hernandez was second in the AL with a 3.82 WPA/LI, second among AL qualifiers with an RA9 of 2.59, best among qualifying AL pitchers with a SIERA of 2.50, and tops among AL pitchers with 7.5 RA9-Wins Above Replacement. It was a tough call, and in the end it's Hernandez by a hair (more on Kluber after the jump).

National League #1: Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers)

Kershaw wasn't simply 2014's best NL pitcher--he was probably the best player in baseball not named after a fish. He allowed fewer runs than any qualifying pitcher in baseball with 42. His 5.47 WPA was a full win ahead of the NL #2, Johnny Cueto. At 5.37, his WPA/LI was a full win ahead of NL #2 Adam Wainwright. His RE24 was over 12 runs ahead of Wainwright's, at a monstrous 48.56. He had the lowest RA9 in the game (1.91), the lowest SIERA in MLB (2.09) and the stingiest FIP in baseball (1.81). His RA9-WAR was a future-Hall of Fame quality 7.9. In English, picking Kershaw for the Walter Johnson Award was the easiest choice I made in this year's BBA voting.


Runners Up: American League

My BBA Votes: The Goose Gossage Award

Goose • Photo Credit: Alan D. WilsonCreative Commons 2.5

Every season, BBA writers vote for their choices in the Goose Gossage Award, picking the best relievers of 2014 in each league. This being a modern analytics blog, I relied primarily on the new stats to pick my votes. Stats that I leaned heavily on include Win Probability Added (WPA), Leverage-adjusted WPA (WPA/LI), Run Expectancy (RE24), Shutdowns and Meltdowns, runs allowed per nine innings (RA9), SIERA and RA9-WAR.

American League #1: Wade Davis (Kansas City Royals)

In 71 appearances for the Royals, Wade Davis allowed only eight runs. His teams win expectancy improved a full 324% while he was in the game. That 3.24 Win Probability Added (WPA) remains 2.60 when adjusted for high leverage situations (WPA/LI)--that's best among qualifying relievers. His pitching saved 24.04 runs better than average when controlling for the various base-out states (RE24), second only to my #2 choice. He shut down offenses 35 times while committing only five meltdowns, posted a qualifying best 1.00 runs allowed per nine innings (RA9), a 1.61 SIERA and a FIP of 1.19. His 3.7 RA9-WAR was second among qualifiers.

National League #1: Tony Watson (Pittsburgh Pirates)

Based on my analysis, the National League's best reliever in 2014 was a set-up man for the Pittsburgh Pirates. In an NL-leading 78 appearances, Watson recorded an MLB-best 44 shutdowns along with an NL-best 2.8 RA9-WAR. His WPA of 3.01 was second only to my third place choice, while among qualifying pitchers in the NL, his 16.22 RE24 was second only to the Giants' Santiago Casilla. It was tough choosing between him and my second place vote, fellow Pirate Mark Melancon.


Runners Up: American League

My BBA Votes: The Connie Mack and Willie Mays Awards

Connie Mack • Courtesy Library of Congress

As BBA members, bloggers share their votes for the annual manager and player awards. The first two are the Connie Mack Award (Manager of the Year) and the Willie Mays Award (Rookie of the Year).

I'm going to be honest with you: I'm not big on either award. I don't honestly believe there's any objective way to pick the "best" manager, while "Rookie of the Year" seems vague to me. Nevertheless, I gave it my best shot. Don't ask me to defend my choices—my criteria are an inconsistent review of various statistics and my gut. 

Connie Mack Award

Willie Mays Award

13 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: Cards Rebound en route to San Francisco

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

Busch Stadium • Photo credit: PhilCreative Commons 2.0

The St. Louis Cardinals are back in the hunt for the Commissioner's Trophy following last night's walk-off victory against the San Francisco Giants. Kolten Wong's dinger off of Sergio Romo evened up the National League Championship Series 1-1 as both teams head to the City by the Bay for Games 3-5. As a result, the Cards are in a much better position than they would be otherwise, but still at a disadvantage to Pablo Sandoval & Co.


12 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: Royals Continue Reign

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

AT&T Park • Photo credit: • kuchingboyCreative Commons 2.0

The Kansas City Royals finally win one in regulation, continuing their reign atop the Rational Pastime postseason projections for another day. As 41% favorites, Kansas City is joined by San Francisco, who improve to 35% after their road win against the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 1 of the NLCS.


11 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: Royals Check Lord Baltimore, Pretend to the Throne

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

Busch Stadium • Photo credit: Ron CogswellCreative Commons 2.0

The Kansas City Royals' strategy of waiting until extra innings and then hitting a home run on the road continues to work marvelously for the American League's wild card representative. For the first time since the beginning of the postseason, Kansas City is the most favored team in the field; for the first time since October 2, Baltimore is not.

Meanwhile, in St. Louis, the series to decide the National League Pennant begins, with the San Francisco Giants slight favorites over the St. Louis Cardinals.


10 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: Royals' Cinderella Story Is for the Birds

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards • Photo credit: Me

The second round of the 2014 MLB Postseason begins with (arguably) four underdogs with a shot at their respective league pennants. Rational Pastime only picked one: Baltimore. We're picking the Orioles again—59 to 41—as my model expects them to cut the Kansas City Royals' Cinderella story short in the American League Championship Series. Baltimore remains the World Series favorite at 2:1 odds.

In the National League Championship Series, which starts tomorrow, RP's model has the San Francisco Giants beating the St. Louis Cardinals 54% of the time. Despite being the away team in three of seven, San Fran wins out due to their much higher Power Score.



08 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: Cardinal Virtues and Giant Opportunities

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

Left Field Upper Deck, Nationals Park at Sunset • Photo credit: Me

For the first time since September 6th, the Washington Nationals lost three out of four. Unfortunately for them, you can't do that in the NLDS. A combination of sloppy play and questionable bullpen management on Washington's side and opportunistic offensive play on the side of the San Francisco Giants means that the owners of the National League's best record will be going home early.

The Giants will join the St. Louis Cardinals as the two surprise NL representatives in the LCS round. The Cards, managing to steal two wins from Clayton Kershaw, remain the weakest team in the postseason—a weakness that seems to have had no influence on the outcome of their games.


07 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: A National Reprieve

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

Busch Stadium • Photo credit: Dave HerholzCreative Commons 2.0

With a 4-1 win, the Washington Nationals earned their season a temporary stay of execution. Meanwhile, the St. Louis Cardinals are one win away from upsetting the Los Angeles Dodgers. With both NLDS at 2-1, each game played from here on out will be a meaningful one—one that will have a significant impact on everyone's World Series chances.


06 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: Royal Upset Sets Table for Kansas City, Charm City ALCS

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

Kauffman Stadium • Photo credit: George ThomasCreative Commons 2.0

Sunday's slate saw the completion of two unlikely sweeps. At 15%, a Baltimore Orioles sweep of the Detroit Tigers was the second least likely outcome according to my numbers. At 8%, a Kansas City Royals sweep of the MLB-best Los Angeles Angels was the least likely result. Despite a combined likelihood of 1.2%, both happened. These results have sent Baltimore's World Series hopes soaring and Kansas City's to the front of a crowded pack.

In a blow to both the Angels and my model, an original World Series favorite is now out of the running. In a boon to my model, I had Baltimore winning (in five, not three), while most of the world thought Detroit would walk away with it. While they focused on Detroit's pitching and the Orioles' loss of Machado, Davis and Wieters, I focused on Baltimore's season-long records. Baltimore had a healthy lead on Detroit in every category that comprises the Rational Pastime Power Score, including a substantial lead in the Pythagorean expectation.


05 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: Giant Outing Gives San Francisco Chance to Sweep

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

AT&T Park • Photo credit: Angel OlavarriaCreative Commons 2.0

Thanks to an epic victory in eighteen frames on the road against the Washington Nationals, the San Francisco Giants have a chance to sweep the NLDS at home. The field has separated into three distinct groupings, with the Baltimore Orioles maintaining their lead in World Series victory probability, the Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers and Kansas City Royals with a 16-19% shot, and four teams scraping the bottom—three of whom face elimination in their next game.


04 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: Clouds Gather over Anaheim

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

Angel Stadium of Anaheim • Photo credit: Ray SmithCreative Commons 2.0

Storm clouds gather over the World Series hopes of the once-AL favorites and owners of Major League Baseball's best record, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. In a second consecutive game, the Angels lost at home to the underdog Kansas City Royals, sending their WS odds plummeting to a paltry 24-1. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles—now bosting 3-1 odds to win it all—are soaring to new heights with their second straight victory over the Detroit Tigers.

There was plenty of excitement in the NL's first LDS slate as well, with the San Francisco Giants surprising the Nationals in Washington, and the St. Louis Cardinals completing a stunning comeback on the road against Clayton Kershaw and the heavily favored Los Angeles Dodgers.


03 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: Will Angels Fall in Royal Upset?

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards • Photo credit: Me

Though both the Baltimore Orioles and the Kansas City Royals are Vegas underdogs as the American League Division Series gets underway, neither squad is interested in conforming to the norms of the market. The Orioles turned themselves into Rational Pastime World Series favorites with an eighth-inning, eight run explosion at home against Detroit, while the Royals flipped the script in extras at Anaheim.



With a 1-0 series lead, the Orioles have vaulted to the front of the pack in World Series probability, now 4-1 favorites according to my numbers. The Angels fell out of a dead heat for first and into a dead heat for fourth overall. The Royals, despite their win, are still long-shots.

02 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: Giants Win Should Aid Favored Nationals

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

AT&T Park • Photo credit: BspangenbergCreative Commons 3.0

Unlike Tuesday Night's game, the story of last night's San Francisco triumph is one of steadiness and domination. That's good for the Washington Nationals (and, to a lesser extent, for the Los Angeles Dodgers).

According to RP's Power Scores, the Pittsburgh Pirates were a much better team than the Giants. Had the Bucs come through against Bumgarner, the Nats' WS% would have been hovering around 17%. Instead, the Nationals will have home field advantage against San Francisco, and are accordingly poised to win it all with a 19% probability. That puts them fractionally ahead of the Los Angeles Angels, who would enjoy home field advantage in the Fall Classic.



It's saying something about my system's view of the Washington Nationals that they are still expected to win it all despite the fact that the AL has World Series home field. In an alternate universe where the National League won the 2014 All Star Game, the Nationals would have a 21% chance to win it all vs. the Angels' 18% shot. Home field or not, the NL has the slight edge overall as the LDS begins.

01 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: Angels, Dodgers, Nationals Current Faves

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

Kauffman Stadium • Photo credit: Jimmy Spencers

Following the most exciting game so far in the one-game wildcard playoff era, Kansas City's win has served to clarify somewhat the postseason picture. There won't be any fancy charts and graphs until tomorrow, after the NL Wild Card is settled, but here are the preliminary numbers:

Wild Card: Pittsburgh 57% to advance over San Francisco

League Division Series
  • LA Angels 61% to advance over Kansas City
  • Baltimore 55% over Detroit
  • Washington 58% over either Pittsburgh or San Francisco
    • Pittsburgh 25% to advance
    • San Francisco 17%
  • LA Dodgers 63% over St. Louis