Nationals Park • Photo credit: Me
Oh, hello again.
The 2014 MLB playoffs are upon us, and that means it's time for Rational Pastime's (nearly) annual postseason projections. I won't be authoring full posts until both play-in games are complete, but I would like to share with you the output from RPBlog's new rating system.
The new system is very similar to last year's, with a few key changes. Estimated true records now take into account park factors and
Here are the rankings and scores of our playoff teams:
- Washington Nationals: .584 (1st in MLB)
- Los Angeles Dodgers: .578 (2nd)
- Los Angeles Angels: .572 (3rd)
- Pittsburgh Pirates: .561 (4th)
- Baltimore Orioles: .557 (5th)
- Oakland Athletics: .551 (6th)
- Detroit Tigers: .538 (7th)
- San Francisco Giants: .532 (9th)
- Kansas City Royals: .518 (12th)
- St. Louis Cardinals: .515 (13th)
- Note that San Francisco, Kansas City and St. Louis ranked worse than other teams that did not reach the postseason, including the Seattle Mariners (.534, 8th), Cleveland Indians (.531, 10th) and Tampa Bay Rays (.522, 12th).
- Though both the Nationals and the Dodgers rank higher than the Angels, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Angels with the best odds when the full projections come out thanks to the AL's home field advantage in the 2014 World Series.
- My system believes Baltimore to be the most overrated of playoff teams, their .593 regular season record nearly forty points higher than their .557 estimated true record. This postseason will be a fun if imperfect test for the model.
Stay tuned as I convert these raw numbers into the odds of success for each team in the postseason.