09 October 2013

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: Tigers Survive, Sox Thrive

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight seven six remaining MLB playoff teams in 2013.

Having vanquished the pesky Tampa Bay Rays, the Boston Red Sox now have a 38% chance—that's roughly 5:3 odds—to win the World Series according to Rational Pastime's rating and projection systems. This marks both the high point for their postseason and the high water mark for every team so far. In fact, the Red Sox have ranked first in six of seven projections: on 10/03, Boston finished behind St. Louis after their Game 1 victory. Of course, at that point the Sox had yet to play a playoff game.


By staving off elimination, the Detroit Tigers increased their World Series chances to 10%. They still trail their opponent, the Oakland Athletics, by 2%. This series will be resolved in a Game 5 contest in Oakland that this blog expects the A's to win.



Series breakdowns and ratings below the jump.



As noted above, the projection system picks Oakland to win tomorrow when they host the Tigers for Game 5. Oakland's home field advantage, more than their slightly superior ranking, account for most of the disparity.


The Tampa Bay Rays, having been eliminated from the postseason, face practically insurmountable odds. It is very unlikely at this point that Tampa Bay will take home either the American League Pennant or the Commissioner's Trophy.


Boston already led the rest of baseball in the Elo-based rating system, and they have extended that lead by beating the Rays in Tampa.

Check back tomorrow for updates following the winner-take all Game 5 between the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals.

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