20 October 2013

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: BoSox Confirm Predictions

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight seven six five four three two remaining MLB playoff teams in 2013.

As projected at the start of the ALCS, the Boston Red Sox defeated the Detroit Tigers in six games. Also projected in the very first Rational Pastime MLB Postseason Projection of 2013, the Sox are on the way to face the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series.


Given the superior rating of the Red Sox as well as their home field advantage, the projection system gives Boston a 57% chance to defeat St. Louis.



Check out the World Series breakdown below.


Having beat the Detroit Tigers in six games, the Boston Red Sox now enjoy 0:1 odds to reach the World Series.


Today's projection matches the most common projection of the past week: Sox over Cards in six. The Cardinals' most realistic hope is to force a seventh game. The ratings below explain why.


While Rational Pastime's rating system considers the St. Louis Cardinals to be the Senior Circuits premier October contestant, they are still far behind the Red Sox in my calculations. While they have a near-identical expected win percentage, the Elo-derived win percentage favors Boston.

Moreover, in comparing teams across leagues, one must consider the relative strength of the AL and NL. Interleague competition indicated a disparity of .014 between the leagues. Split evenly, this means that the AL teams are .007 better than indicated and NL teams .007 worse. This adds to the lead of the Boston Red Sox.

Finally, interleague home field advantage is stronger than that of intraleague contests. Matt Schwartz finds that the home field advantage in an interleague match-up is .551 (as opposed to the typical ~.540). Since the Junior Circuit won the All Star Game, they—in this case the Boston Red Sox—enjoy the extra home game.

Thus, I give the Sox a 57% chance to win it all with a most likely outcome of Boston over St. Louis in six games. Tune in following Game 1 of the 2013 World Series to see how well these projections are holding up.

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