Rating Systems Challenge 2012: Conclusion

It was official on Sunday--the Survival Model was the best in the 2012 NCAA Tournament--but Kentucky's national championship puts the icing on the cake. While nearly every system performed better than last year (see below), only four systems had more correct picks than chalk.
 

Model	2011	2012	∆	∆%
ESPN Decision Tree	32	41	9	28%
AP Preseason Poll	33	42	9	27%
Jeff Sagarin	34	43	9	26%
Vegas	34	40	6	18%
Lunardi RPI	33	38	5	15%
LRMC Bayesian	34	39	5	15%
Sonny Moore	35	40	5	14%
ESPN National Bracket	36	41	5	14%
Pomeroy	37	41	4	11%
RPI*	33	36	3	9%
Pure Chalk	38	41	3	8%
FiveThirtyEight	38	40	2	5%
Nolan Power	35	35	0	0%
*NCAA RPI in 2011, ESPN InsideRPI in 2012.
Results should be identical.

Considering that there weren't as many Final Four surprises this year as last (where no system picked any finalist correctly), twelve of the thirteen systems that competed in both Rating System Challenges improved on their 2011 records. The one exception is the Nolan Power Index, which performed as poorly this year as last. This is the second year in a row in which Nolan Power ranked last in correct picks.

Thanks again for following along. Check out the final rankings after the jump.

Click here to review RPBlog's March Madness 2012 coverage and Rating Systems Challenge results.

Rank	System	R64	R32	S16	E8	FF	NCG	Champion	PPR	Total	Pct	Correct
1	Survival Model	250	200	280	240	160	320	Kentucky	0	1450	97.7	74.6%
2	ESPN Simulation Model	220	180	160	240	320	320	Kentucky	0	1440	97.4	65.1%
3	Jeff Sagarin	230	200	200	240	160	320	Kentucky	0	1350	94.0	68.3%
4	Pomeroy	220	180	200	240	160	320	Kentucky	0	1320	92.4	65.1%
5	LRMC Bayesian	200	180	200	240	160	320	Kentucky	0	1300	91.2	61.9%
6	ESPN Decision Tree	210	220	200	160	160	320	Kentucky	0	1270	88.9	65.1%
7	ESPN National Bracket	220	200	200	160	160	320	Kentucky	0	1260	88.0	65.1%
8	FiveThirtyEight	220	180	200	160	160	320	Kentucky	0	1240	86.0	63.5%
9	Pure Chalk	220	220	200	80	160	320	Kentucky	0	1200	81.8	65.1%
9	AP Postseason	220	220	200	80	160	320	Kentucky	0	1200	81.8	65.1%
11	Vegas	210	220	200	80	160	320	Kentucky	0	1190	80.0	63.5%
12	ESPN CBPI	220	200	200	80	160	320	Kentucky	0	1180	78.9	63.5%
12	ESPN/USA Today Postseason	220	200	200	80	160	320	Kentucky	0	1180	78.9	63.5%
14	ESPN/USA Today Preseason	230	200	280	240	160	0	UNC	0	1110	71.0	69.8%
14	Nolan Power Index	190	160	200	80	160	320	Kentucky	0	1110	71.0	55.6%
16	AP Preseason	210	220	280	160	160	0	UNC	0	1030	64.2	66.7%
17	Lunardi RPI	200	200	240	80	160	0	UNC	0	880	53.2	60.3%
18	ESPN InsideRPI	200	180	200	80	160	0	Syracuse	0	820	46.9	57.1%
19	Sonny Moore	230	200	200	160	0	0	Ohio St	0	790	43.5	63.5%

*Rank sorted by total points (Total), possible points remaining (PPR) and percentage of correct picks (Correct). "Pct" denotes where the brackets rank among the rest in the ESPN Tournament Challenge.