02 April 2012

Rating Systems Challenge 2012: Survival Model Locks It Up

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Click here for the most up-to-date March Madness 2012 coverage and Rating Systems Challenge results from RPBlog.

The ESPN Simulation Model, which had been performing dismally throughout the tournament, shot up into second place due to its strong performance in the Final Four. This model was the only system among the nineteen that picked both finalists correctly. Every other system, save Sonny Moore, picked 1 Kentucky but not 2 Kansas.

This exceptional rise was not enough to unseat the Survival Model. With Kentucky's advance to the final game, the Survival Model maintained pole position. And it will keep its lead through the finish, as no system has Kansas winning the national championship. As a result, the only possible change in standings is whether the brackets that picked the Wildcats will surpass the brackets that picked UNC, Syracuse or Ohio State.

And so, the final results are just a formality, but be sure to tune in for some final commentary and comparisons with last year's Rating Systems Challenge results.

Rank System R64 R32 S16 E8 FF NCG Champion PPR Total Pct Correct
1 Survival Model 250 200 280 240 160 0 Kentucky 320 1130 96.9 74.2%
2 ESPN Simulation Model 220 180 160 240 320 0 Kentucky 320 1120 96.5 64.5%
3 ESPN/USA Today Preseason 230 200 280 240 160 0 UNC 0 1110 96.0 71.0%
4 Jeff Sagarin 230 200 200 240 160 0 Kentucky 320 1030 91.3 67.7%
5 AP Preseason 210 220 280 160 160 0 UNC 0 1030 91.3 67.7%
6 Pomeroy 220 180 200 240 160 0 Kentucky 320 1000 88.7 64.5%
7 LRMC Bayesian 200 180 200 240 160 0 Kentucky 320 980 86.6 61.3%
8 ESPN Decision Tree 210 220 200 160 160 0 Kentucky 320 950 82.7 64.5%
9 ESPN National Bracket 220 200 200 160 160 0 Kentucky 320 940 81.2 64.5%
10 FiveThirtyEight 220 180 200 160 160 0 Kentucky 320 920 77.8 62.9%
11 Pure Chalk 220 220 200 80 160 0 Kentucky 320 880 70.3 64.5%
11 AP Postseason 220 220 200 80 160 0 Kentucky 320 880 70.3 64.5%
13 Lunardi RPI 200 200 240 80 160 0 UNC 0 880 70.3 61.3%
14 Vegas 210 220 200 80 160 0 Kentucky 320 870 67.5 62.9%
15 ESPN CBPI 220 200 200 80 160 0 Kentucky 320 860 65.4 62.9%
15 ESPN/USA Today Postseason 220 200 200 80 160 0 Kentucky 320 860 65.4 62.9%
17 ESPN InsideRPI 200 180 200 80 160 0 Syracuse 0 820 57.0 58.1%
18 Nolan Power Index 190 160 200 80 160 0 Kentucky 320 790 50.7 54.8%
19 Sonny Moore 230 200 200 160 0 0 Ohio St 0 790 50.7 64.5%

*Rank sorted by total points (Total), possible points remaining (PPR) and percentage of correct picks (Correct). "Pct" denotes where the brackets rank among the rest in the ESPN Tournament Challenge.


Rank System South East West Midwest Correct PPR
1 Survival Model UK OSU MSU KU 74.2% 320
2 ESPN Simulation Model UK OSU MSU KU 64.5% 320
3 ESPN/USA Today Preseason UK OSU L'Ville UNC 71.0% 0
4 Jeff Sagarin UK OSU MSU UNC 67.7% 320
5 AP Preseason UK Cuse Mizzou KU 67.7% 0
6 Pomeroy UK OSU MSU KU 64.5% 320
7 LRMC Bayesian UK OSU MSU KU 61.3% 320
8 ESPN Decision Tree UK OSU Mizzou UNC 64.5% 320
9 ESPN National Bracket UK OSU Mizzou UNC 64.5% 320
10 FiveThirtyEight UK OSU Mizzou UNC 62.9% 320
11 Pure Chalk UK Cuse MSU UNC 64.5% 320
11 AP Postseason UK OSU Florida UNC 64.5% 320
13 Lunardi RPI UK Cuse MSU UNC 61.3% 0
14 Vegas UK Cuse MSU UNC 62.9% 320
15 ESPN CBPI UK Cuse MSU UNC 62.9% 320
15 ESPN/USA Today Postseason UK Cuse Mizzou UNC 62.9% 320
17 ESPN InsideRPI UK Cuse MSU UNC 58.1% 0
18 Nolan Power Index UK Cuse Murray St UNC 54.8% 320
19 Sonny Moore UK OSU MSU UNC 64.5% 0

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