24 March 2012

Rating Systems Challenge 2012: Introducing the Survival Model

3 Baylor was the lowest seed
to win last night.
Image credit: Wikipedia
Click here for the most up-to-date March Madness 2012 coverage and Rating Systems Challenge results from RPBlog.

First, let me take this opportunity to correct an omission. I forgot to add a rating system that I was previously aware of, and I am adding it now. The rating system is called the Survival Model. You can read about the model here. It picked Kentucky over Ohio State in the National Championship after defeating Michigan State and Kansas. It's the fifteenth chalkiest bracket (among nineteen).

And, frankly, it's kicking ass.

While the Survival Model does not have an intact Final Four, it has picked some incredible upsets. This model's superb picks include 13 Ohio over 4 Michigan and 11 NC State over 6 San Diego State. It's one of only two models that put Florida in the Elite Eight. This is why the Survival Model is dominating the standings. It's well ahead of Pure Chalk and has a few steps on the preseason polls, which performed well again last night.

Finally, the Survival Model, Lunardi RPI and Pomeroy are the only three systems that predicted 3 Baylor reaching the Elite Eight. Every other system picked Duke, and we all know how that worked out.

Rank System R64 R32 S16 E8 FF NCG Champion PPR Total Pct Correct
1 Survival Model 250 200 280 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 730 99.7 75.0%
2 ESPN/USA Today Preseason 230 200 280 0 0 0 UNC 960 710 99.3 71.4%
3 AP Preseason 210 220 280 0 0 0 UNC 960 710 99.3 69.6%
4 Pure Chalk 220 220 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 640 89.8 67.9%
4 AP Postseason 220 220 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 640 89.8 67.9%
6 Lunardi RPI 200 200 240 0 0 0 UNC 880 640 89.8 64.3%
7 Jeff Sagarin 230 200 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 630 85.5 67.9%
8 ESPN Decision Tree 210 220 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 630 85.5 66.1%
8 Vegas 210 220 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 630 85.5 66.1%
10 Sonny Moore 230 200 200 0 0 0 Ohio St 720 630 85.5 67.9%
11 ESPN CBPI 220 200 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 620 81.6 66.1%
11 ESPN National Bracket 220 200 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 620 81.6 66.1%
11 ESPN/USA Today Postseason 220 200 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 620 81.6 66.1%
14 FiveThirtyEight 220 180 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 600 72.7 64.3%
14 Pomeroy 220 180 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 600 72.7 64.3%
16 ESPN InsideRPI 200 180 200 0 0 0 Syracuse 880 580 62.4 60.7%
16 LRMC Bayesian 200 180 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 580 62.4 60.7%
18 ESPN Simulation Model 220 180 160 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 560 51.6 62.5%
19 Nolan Power Index 190 160 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 550 46.3 57.1%

*Rank sorted by total points (Total), possible points remaining (PPR) and percentage of correct picks (Correct). "Pct" denotes where the brackets rank among the rest in the ESPN Tournament Challenge.

Rank System South East West Midwest Correct PPR
1 Survival Model UK OSU MSU KU 75.0% 880
2 ESPN/USA Today Preseason UK OSU L'Ville UNC 71.4% 960
3 AP Preseason UK Cuse Mizzou UNC 69.6% 960
4 Pure Chalk UK Cuse MSU UNC 67.9% 880
4 AP Postseason UK OSU Florida UNC 67.9% 880
6 Lunardi RPI UK Cuse MSU UNC 64.3% 880
7 Jeff Sagarin UK OSU MSU UNC 67.9% 880
8 ESPN Decision Tree UK OSU Mizzou UNC 66.1% 880
8 Vegas UK Cuse MSU UNC 66.1% 880
10 Sonny Moore UK OSU MSU UNC 67.9% 720
11 ESPN CBPI UK Cuse MSU UNC 66.1% 880
11 ESPN National Bracket UK OSU Mizzou UNC 66.1% 880
11 ESPN/USA Today Postseason UK Cuse Mizzou UNC 66.1% 880
14 FiveThirtyEight UK OSU Mizzou UNC 64.3% 880
14 Pomeroy UK OSU MSU KU 64.3% 880
16 ESPN InsideRPI UK Cuse MSU UNC 60.7% 880
16 LRMC Bayesian UK OSU MSU KU 60.7% 880
18 ESPN Simulation Model UK OSU MSU KU 62.5% 880
19 Nolan Power Index UK Cuse Murray St UNC 57.1% 880

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