18 March 2012

Rating Systems Challenge 2012: Round of 32, Day One

Yesterday was a great day for chalk: there were no upsets and no victories by any school seeded worse than fourth. Today's standings in the Rating Systems Challenge reflect the top seeds' success. Pure Chalk is once again atop the leader board, except this time she is there alone (the AP Postseason bracket has been equally successful thus far, but has fewer possible points remaining).

Rank System R64 R32 S16 E8 FF NCG Champion PPR Total Pct
1 Pure Chalk 220 160 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1300 380 97.4
2 AP Postseason 220 160 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1220 380 97.4
3 Jeff Sagarin 230 140 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1300 370 92.5
3 Sonny Moore 230 140 0 0 0 0 Ohio St 1300 370 92.5
3 Vegas 210 160 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1300 370 92.5
6 ESPN CBPI 220 140 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1280 360 86.8
7 ESPN National Bracket 220 140 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1220 360 86.8
7 ESPN/USA Today Postseason 220 140 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1220 360 86.8
9 ESPN/USA Today Preseason 230 120 0 0 0 0 UNC 1340 350 79.0
10 AP Preseason 210 140 0 0 0 0 UNC 1320 350 79.0
11 ESPN Decision Tree 210 140 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1220 350 79.0
12 Lunardi RPI 200 140 0 0 0 0 UNC 1340 340 69.6
13 Pomeroy 220 120 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1320 340 69.6
14 ESPN Simulation Model 220 120 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1300 340 69.6
15 FiveThirtyEight 220 120 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1220 340 69.6
16 ESPN InsideRPI 200 120 0 0 0 0 Syracuse 1340 320 48.6
17 LRMC Bayesian 200 120 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1280 320 48.6
18 Nolan Power Index 190 100 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1200 290 22.0

*Rank sorted by total points (Total) and possible points remaining (PPR). "Pct" denotes where the brackets rank among the rest in the ESPN Tournament Challenge.

Saturday's game cost yet another system a Final Four pick. The last-ranked—and next-to-least chalkiest—Nolan Power Index had 6 Murray State in the Final Four. Despite hanging on for much of the game, however, they were unable to upset 3 Marquette. There are now six systems whose Final Four predictions are partially disrupted. That said, each system's South, East and Midwest picks are still intact.

Rank System South East West Midwest PPR
7 ESPN National Bracket KU OSU Mizzou UNC 1220
7 ESPN/USA Today Postseason KU Cuse Mizzou UNC 1220
10 AP Preseason KU Cuse Mizzou UNC 1320
11 ESPN Decision Tree KU OSU Mizzou UNC 1220
15 FiveThirtyEight KU OSU Mizzou UNC 1220
18 Nolan Power Index KU Cuse Murray St UNC 1200

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