Rating Systems Challenge 2012: Round of 64

Lehigh Shield
Image Credit: Wikipedia

Following one of the craziest days in the history of March Madness, many a bracket have collapsed under the weight of huge upsets. The best systems have only earned 230 points out of a possible 320. That's an accuracy rate of just under 72%.

Not surprisingly, none of the systems picked either 15 Lehigh or 15 Norfolk State to advance, but advance they did over classic powerhouse Duke and departing Big 12 darling Missouri. Nor did any system predict the 12-5 upset by USF over Temple, and it is worth mentioning that many rating systems ranked USF worse than Temple and California, the foe South Florida defeated in the play-in round.

Several systems had 11 NC State over 6 San Diego State, including Jeff Sagarin, Sonny Moore, Ken Pomeroy, the ESPN Simulation Model and National Bracket, FiveThirtyEight and Vegas.

The one system that picked 13 Ohio over 4 Michigan—the Nolan Power Index—nevertheless occupies the bottom spot in the Rating Systems Challenge.

Read on after the jump for more commentary about the effect of Norfolk State's upset over Missouri on the various rating system brackets, and don't forget to come back tomorrow morning for the updated results.

Rank	System	R64	R32	S16	E8	FF	NCG	Champion	PPR	Total	Pct
1	ESPN/USA Today Preseason	230	0	0	0	0	0	UNC	1500	230	90.9
2	Jeff Sagarin	230	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1460	230	90.9
2	Sonny Moore	230	0	0	0	0	0	Ohio St	1460	230	90.9
4	ESPN CBPI	220	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1540	220	78.4
5	Pure Chalk	220	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1460	220	78.4
5	Pomeroy	220	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1460	220	78.4
7	ESPN Simulation Model	220	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1440	220	78.4
8	AP Postseason	220	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1380	220	78.4
8	ESPN National Bracket	220	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1380	220	78.4
8	ESPN/USA Today Postseason	220	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1380	220	78.4
11	FiveThirtyEight	220	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1360	220	78.4
12	AP Preseason	210	0	0	0	0	0	UNC	1480	210	58.0
13	Vegas	210	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1460	210	58.0
14	ESPN Decision Tree	210	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1360	210	58.0
15	Lunardi RPI	200	0	0	0	0	0	UNC	1500	200	37.1
16	ESPN InsideRPI	200	0	0	0	0	0	Syracuse	1480	200	37.1
17	LRMC Bayesian	200	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1420	200	37.1
18	Nolan Power Index	190	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1460	190	20.5

*Rank sorted by total points (Total) and possible points remaining (PPR). "Pct" denotes where the brackets rank among the rest in the ESPN Tournament Challenge.

Norfolk State took out Mizzou last night, and this is by far the most devastating upset to the rating system brackets. Several had Duke in the Sweet 16, but none had the Blue Devils advancing to the Final Four. On the other hand, five different systems expected Missouri to stand among the four remaining teams in the NCAA Tournament.

Rank	System	South	East	West	Midwest	PPR
8	ESPN National Bracket	KU	OSU	Mizzou	UNC	1380
8	ESPN/USA Today Postseason	KU	Cuse	Mizzou	UNC	1380
11	FiveThirtyEight	KU	OSU	Mizzou	UNC	1360
12	AP Preseason	KU	Cuse	Mizzou	UNC	1480
14	ESPN Decision Tree	KU	OSU	Mizzou	UNC	1360

These five systems currently occupy the middle ranks of the Rating Systems Challenge, and they don't look too likely to climb out; their possible points remaining rank among the bottom of the eighteen entries. That said, March is far from over, and anything can happen—last year not a single system's Final Four picks survived until the actual Final Four.

Could it happen again this year? Keep coming back after each game day to see how they do.