17 March 2012

Rating Systems Challenge 2012: Round of 64

Lehigh Shield
Image Credit: Wikipedia
Following one of the craziest days in the history of March Madness, many a bracket have collapsed under the weight of huge upsets. The best systems have only earned 230 points out of a possible 320. That's an accuracy rate of just under 72%.

Not surprisingly, none of the systems picked either 15 Lehigh or 15 Norfolk State to advance, but advance they did over classic powerhouse Duke and departing Big 12 darling Missouri. Nor did any system predict the 12-5 upset by USF over Temple, and it is worth mentioning that many rating systems ranked USF worse than Temple and California, the foe South Florida defeated in the play-in round.

Several systems had 11 NC State over 6 San Diego State, including Jeff Sagarin, Sonny Moore, Ken Pomeroy, the ESPN Simulation Model and National Bracket, FiveThirtyEight and Vegas.

The one system that picked 13 Ohio over 4 Michigan—the Nolan Power Index—nevertheless occupies the bottom spot in the Rating Systems Challenge.

Read on after the jump for more commentary about the effect of Norfolk State's upset over Missouri on the various rating system brackets, and don't forget to come back tomorrow morning for the updated results.

Rank System R64 R32 S16 E8 FF NCG Champion PPR Total Pct
1 ESPN/USA Today Preseason 230 0 0 0 0 0 UNC 1500 230 90.9
2 Jeff Sagarin 230 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1460 230 90.9
2 Sonny Moore 230 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio St 1460 230 90.9
4 ESPN CBPI 220 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1540 220 78.4
5 Pure Chalk 220 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1460 220 78.4
5 Pomeroy 220 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1460 220 78.4
7 ESPN Simulation Model 220 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1440 220 78.4
8 AP Postseason 220 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1380 220 78.4
8 ESPN National Bracket 220 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1380 220 78.4
8 ESPN/USA Today Postseason 220 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1380 220 78.4
11 FiveThirtyEight 220 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1360 220 78.4
12 AP Preseason 210 0 0 0 0 0 UNC 1480 210 58.0
13 Vegas 210 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1460 210 58.0
14 ESPN Decision Tree 210 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1360 210 58.0
15 Lunardi RPI 200 0 0 0 0 0 UNC 1500 200 37.1
16 ESPN InsideRPI 200 0 0 0 0 0 Syracuse 1480 200 37.1
17 LRMC Bayesian 200 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1420 200 37.1
18 Nolan Power Index 190 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1460 190 20.5

*Rank sorted by total points (Total) and possible points remaining (PPR). "Pct" denotes where the brackets rank among the rest in the ESPN Tournament Challenge.

Norfolk State took out Mizzou last night, and this is by far the most devastating upset to the rating system brackets. Several had Duke in the Sweet 16, but none had the Blue Devils advancing to the Final Four. On the other hand, five different systems expected Missouri to stand among the four remaining teams in the NCAA Tournament.

Rank System South East West Midwest PPR
8 ESPN National Bracket KU OSU Mizzou UNC 1380
8 ESPN/USA Today Postseason KU Cuse Mizzou UNC 1380
11 FiveThirtyEight KU OSU Mizzou UNC 1360
12 AP Preseason KU Cuse Mizzou UNC 1480
14 ESPN Decision Tree KU OSU Mizzou UNC 1360

These five systems currently occupy the middle ranks of the Rating Systems Challenge, and they don't look too likely to climb out; their possible points remaining rank among the bottom of the eighteen entries. That said, March is far from over, and anything can happen—last year not a single system's Final Four picks survived until the actual Final Four.

Could it happen again this year? Keep coming back after each game day to see how they do.

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