16 March 2012

Rating Systems Challenge 2012: Results after Day One

Today was a great day for polls, chalk, and Jeff Sagarin. After the first day of the Round of 64, we have a six-way tie for first place. No systems have differentiated themselves from the Pure Chalk bracket just yet.

The stories of the night were VCU (12) and Colorado (11) upsetting Wichita State and UNLV, respectively. Among all systems, only the ESPN/USA Today Preseason Poll correctly predicted the VCU upset, while no system expected Colorado to top Las Vegas.

UNC-Asheville (16) seriously threatened the predictive capacities of several systems; seven have Syracuse (1) heading to the Final Four. They were saved when the Orange pulled it out and avoided becoming the answer to a very unfortunate trivia question.

At the behest of friend and former ESPN stat head, Puneet Nanda, we have added an eighteenth system: the ESPN College Basketball Power Index (CBPI). As you can probably discern, it's a power index system with a few tweaks here and there. Compared to the other brackets it is the sixth chalkiest out of eighteen, tied with InsideRPI. CBPI's Final Four is all chalk.

Check back tomorrow for updated results.

Rank System R64 R32 S16 E8 FF NCG Champion PPR Total Pct
1 AP Postseason 140 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1760 140 97.1
1 ESPN CBPI 140 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1760 140 97.1
1 ESPN/USA Today Postseason 140 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1760 140 97.1
1 ESPN/USA Today Preseason 140 0 0 0 0 0 UNC 1760 140 97.1
1 Jeff Sagarin 140 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1760 140 97.1
1 Pure Chalk 140 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1760 140 97.1
7 LRMC Bayesian 140 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1740 140 97.1
7 Pomeroy 140 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1740 140 97.1
9 AP Preseason 130 0 0 0 0 0 UNC 1760 130 82.3
9 ESPN National Bracket 130 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1760 130 82.3
9 Lunardi RPI 130 0 0 0 0 0 UNC 1760 130 82.3
9 Sonny Moore 130 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio St 1760 130 82.3
9 Vegas 130 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1760 130 82.3
14 ESPN Decision Tree 130 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1740 130 82.3
14 ESPN Simulation Model 130 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1740 130 82.3
16 ESPN InsideRPI 120 0 0 0 0 0 Syracuse 1740 120 56.1
16 FiveThirtyEight 120 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1740 120 56.1
18 Nolan Power Index 110 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 1740 110 29.3

*Rank sorted by total points (Total) and possible points remaining (PPR). "Pct" denotes where the brackets rank among the rest in the ESPN Tournament Challenge.

Image credit: Wikipedia

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