25 March 2012

Rating Systems Challenge 2012: Chalk Begins to Crumble

Last night, 4 Louisville surpassed 7 Florida.
Image credit: Wiikipedia 
Click here for the most up-to-date March Madness 2012 coverage and Rating Systems Challenge results from RPBlog.

With the defeat of 1 Syracuse by 2 Ohio State, and lacking a surviving entrant in the West regional final, Pure Chalk falls into the second division of the Rating Systems Challenge for the first time. Twelve systems are currently outperforming chalk.

Among the results of yesterday's games:
  • The ESPN/USA Today Poll (preseason) leapfrogs the Survival Model for the top spot, having picked both 4 Louisville and Ohio State to advance. The Survival Model is still tops in correct picks overall.
  • Syracuse's loss knocks out ESPN InsideRPI's National Championship pick. This system is the first to lose its top pick.
  • Eight systems in total picked Syracuse to advance to the Final Four; six picked the Orange to advance to the final game. These systems are concentrated near the bottom of the standings.
  • The loss of 7 Florida to Louisville ruined the AP Poll's (postseason) perfect Final Four. The ESPN/USA Today Poll (preseason) is the only system with its Final Four intact.

Rank System R64 R32 S16 E8 FF NCG Champion PPR Total Pct Correct
1 ESPN/USA Today Preseason 230 200 280 160 0 0 UNC 800 870 99.9 72.4%
2 Survival Model 250 200 280 80 0 0 Kentucky 800 810 99.3 74.1%
3 AP Preseason 210 220 280 80 0 0 UNC 800 790 98.8 69.0%
4 Jeff Sagarin 230 200 200 80 0 0 Kentucky 800 710 90.8 67.2%
5 ESPN Decision Tree 210 220 200 80 0 0 Kentucky 800 710 90.8 65.5%
6 Sonny Moore 230 200 200 80 0 0 Ohio St 640 710 90.8 67.2%
7 ESPN National Bracket 220 200 200 80 0 0 Kentucky 800 700 88.8 65.5%
8 FiveThirtyEight 220 180 200 80 0 0 Kentucky 800 680 83.7 63.8%
8 Pomeroy 220 180 200 80 0 0 Kentucky 800 680 83.7 63.8%
10 LRMC Bayesian 200 180 200 80 0 0 Kentucky 800 660 77.9 60.3%
11 ESPN Simulation Model 220 180 160 80 0 0 Kentucky 800 640 71.3 62.1%
11 Lunardi RPI 200 200 240 0 0 0 UNC 800 640 71.3 62.1%
13 Pure Chalk 220 220 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 640 640 71.3 65.5%
13 AP Postseason 220 220 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 640 640 71.3 65.5%
15 Vegas 210 220 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 800 630 66.8 63.8%
16 ESPN CBPI 220 200 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 800 620 63.2 63.8%
17 ESPN/USA Today Postseason 220 200 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 640 620 63.2 63.8%
18 ESPN InsideRPI 200 180 200 0 0 0 Syracuse 320 580 47.8 58.6%
19 Nolan Power Index 190 160 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 640 550 36.2 55.2%

*Rank sorted by total points (Total), possible points remaining (PPR) and percentage of correct picks (Correct). "Pct" denotes where the brackets rank among the rest in the ESPN Tournament Challenge.

Rank System South East West Midwest Correct PPR
1 ESPN/USA Today Preseason UK OSU L'Ville UNC 72.4% 800
2 Survival Model UK OSU MSU KU 74.1% 800
3 AP Preseason UK Cuse Mizzou UNC 69.0% 800
4 Jeff Sagarin UK OSU MSU UNC 67.2% 800
5 ESPN Decision Tree UK OSU Mizzou UNC 65.5% 800
6 Sonny Moore UK OSU MSU UNC 67.2% 640
7 ESPN National Bracket UK OSU Mizzou UNC 65.5% 800
8 FiveThirtyEight UK OSU Mizzou UNC 63.8% 800
8 Pomeroy UK OSU MSU KU 63.8% 800
10 LRMC Bayesian UK OSU MSU KU 60.3% 800
11 ESPN Simulation Model UK OSU MSU KU 62.1% 800
11 Lunardi RPI UK Cuse MSU UNC 62.1% 800
13 Pure Chalk UK Cuse MSU UNC 65.5% 640
13 AP Postseason UK OSU Florida UNC 65.5% 640
15 Vegas UK Cuse MSU UNC 63.8% 800
16 ESPN CBPI UK Cuse MSU UNC 63.8% 800
17 ESPN/USA Today Postseason UK Cuse Mizzou UNC 63.8% 640
18 ESPN InsideRPI UK Cuse MSU UNC 58.6% 320
19 Nolan Power Index UK Cuse Murray St UNC 55.2% 640

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