For each system we constructed a bracket in which the higher-rated team always wins (with the exception of the National Bracket and the LRMC Bayesian systems, which construct their own brackets). Chalk wins in the case of ties or an absence of information. In the case of Vegas numbers, we use their "second" round lines for the first match ups and the national championship odds for the remainder. Play-in games are not considered. We will update the standings after each day of tourney play.
The following systems' final four projections, and their level of "chalkiness," is presented in the table below. More information is available after the jump.
| Postseason Polls | South | East | West | Midwest |
Chalk Rank
|
| Associated Press | Kentucky | Ohio State | Florida | North Carolina |
2
|
| ESPN/USA Today | Kentucky | Syracuse | Missouri | North Carolina |
3
|
| ESPN National Bracket | Kentucky | Ohio State | Missouri | North Carolina |
5
|
| Pure Chalk | Kentucky | Syracuse | Michigan State | North Carolina |
1
|
| Preseason Polls | South | East | West | Midwest |
Chalk Rank
|
| Associated Press | Kentucky | Syracuse | Missouri | North Carolina |
17
|
| ESPN/USA Today | Kentucky | Ohio State | Louisville | North Carolina |
15
|
| Simulations | South | East | West | Midwest |
Chalk Rank
|
| ESPN Decision Tree | Kentucky | Ohio State | Missouri | North Carolina |
12
|
| ESPN Simulation Model | Kentucky | Ohio State | Michigan State | Kansas |
8
|
| FiveThirtyEight | Kentucky | Ohio State | Missouri | North Carolina |
13
|
| LRMC Bayesian | Kentucky | Ohio State | Michigan State | Kansas |
10
|
| Power Indices | South | East | West | Midwest |
Chalk Rank
|
| ESPN InsideRPI | Kentucky | Syracuse | Michigan State | North Carolina |
6
|
| Jeff Sagarin | Kentucky | Ohio State | Michigan State | North Carolina |
7
|
| Lunardi RPI | Kentucky | Syracuse | Michigan State | North Carolina |
10
|
| Nolan Power Index | Kentucky | Syracuse | Murray State | North Carolina |
16
|
| Pomeroy | Kentucky | Ohio State | Michigan State | Kansas |
8
|
| Sonny Moore | Kentucky | Ohio State | Michigan State | North Carolina |
14
|
| Markets | South | East | West | Midwest |
Chalk Rank
|
| Vegas | Kentucky | Syracuse | Michigan State | North Carolina |
4
|
We've made a few changes this year. For starters, we compare seventeen different systems in 2012, versus the thirteen we tested in 2011. We have replaced NCAA Official RPI with ESPN InsideRPI, which is a reasonable facsimile that updates far more frequently. We're testing not only the AP Preseason poll, but both AP and ESPN/USA Today preseason and postseason polls. Finally, we've added yet another model available to subscribers to ESPN Insider: the Simulation Model.
If you would like to learn more about these systems, click on the links in the titles where available.
As you can see, the postseason polls and Vegas numbers are the chalkiest—no surprise there, especially since one of those entries is "Pure Chalk." The preseason polls are, no surprise again, the least chalky. Those polls have Florida and Louisville going far due to the two constituencies' high opinions of those school back in November. The simulators and power indices range from the moderately chalky to not chalky at all.
Clearly, the systems love Kentucky. Every single evaluation method puts Kentucky in the Final Four, while sixteen have them reaching the final contest and twelve (71%) have the Wildcats winning it all.
| School | Final Four | Finalist | Champion | Confidence |
| Kentucky | 17 | 16 | 12 | 97 |
| North Carolina | 14 | 5 | 3 | 36 |
| Ohio State | 10 | 6 | 1 | 26 |
| Syracuse | 7 | 5 | 1 | 21 |
| Michigan State | 9 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
| Kansas | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Missouri | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Florida | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Louisville | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Murray State | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Nobody else is really close. Carolina, Ohio State and Cuse are the only other schools that more than one system expects to reach the final game. Sparty, Kansas, Mizzou, Florida, Louisville (those last two having been chosen by the preseason polls) bring up the rear, along with Murray State (courtesy of the Nolan Power Index).
Remember to continue to check in with us after every day of tournament play. We will be updating the scores and percentiles of each system as March Madness progresses.
Remember to continue to check in with us after every day of tournament play. We will be updating the scores and percentiles of each system as March Madness progresses.
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