26 March 2012

Rating Systems Challenge 2012: Survival Model a Survivor

2 Kansas upset 1 North Carolina.
Image credit: Wikipedia
Click here for the most up-to-date March Madness 2012 coverage and Rating Systems Challenge results from RPBlog.

First things first: Jeff Sagarin alerted me to the fact that I made an error in constructing the bracket based on his system. I had him picking UNC to win their region. He actually picked Kansas. The proof is in the post. An error such as this would, obviously, have hurt his system after yesterday's games. In the rankings below I have rectified this mistake. Apologies to my readers and Mr. Sagarin.

Second things second: 1 Kentucky did just what every system expected, while 2 Kansas did what few systems expected, that being advance to the Final Four.

In fact, only five systems put Kansas in the Final Four, while fourteen picked Carolina. Moreover, five had UNC them in the final game and three had them winning it all.

Rank System R64 R32 S16 E8 FF NCG Champion PPR Total Pct Correct
1 Survival Model 250 200 280 240 0 0 Kentucky 640 970 99.8 75.0%
2 ESPN/USA Today Preseason 230 200 280 240 0 0 UNC 160 950 99.6 71.7%
3 Jeff Sagarin 230 200 200 240 0 0 Kentucky 640 870 96.9 68.3%
4 AP Preseason 210 220 280 160 0 0 UNC 160 870 96.9 68.3%
5 Pomeroy 220 180 200 240 0 0 Kentucky 640 840 94.0 65.0%
6 LRMC Bayesian 200 180 200 240 0 0 Kentucky 640 820 91.4 61.7%
7 ESPN Simulation Model 220 180 160 240 0 0 Kentucky 640 800 88.1 63.3%
8 ESPN Decision Tree 210 220 200 160 0 0 Kentucky 640 790 86.0 65.0%
9 Sonny Moore 230 200 200 160 0 0 Ohio St 480 790 86.0 66.7%
10 ESPN National Bracket 220 200 200 160 0 0 Kentucky 480 780 83.8 65.0%
11 FiveThirtyEight 220 180 200 160 0 0 Kentucky 640 760 78.8 63.3%
12 Pure Chalk 220 220 200 80 0 0 Kentucky 480 720 67.3 65.0%
12 AP Postseason 220 220 200 80 0 0 Kentucky 480 720 67.3 65.0%
14 Lunardi RPI 200 200 240 80 0 0 UNC 160 720 67.3 61.7%
15 Vegas 210 220 200 80 0 0 Kentucky 480 710 63.2 63.3%
16 ESPN CBPI 220 200 200 80 0 0 Kentucky 640 700 59.9 63.3%
17 ESPN/USA Today Postseason 220 200 200 80 0 0 Kentucky 480 700 59.9 63.3%
18 ESPN InsideRPI 200 180 200 80 0 0 Syracuse 160 660 46.9 58.3%
19 Nolan Power Index 190 160 200 80 0 0 Kentucky 480 630 37.5 55.0%

*Rank sorted by total points (Total), possible points remaining (PPR) and percentage of correct picks (Correct). "Pct" denotes where the brackets rank among the rest in the ESPN Tournament Challenge.


25 March 2012

Rating Systems Challenge 2012: Chalk Begins to Crumble

Last night, 4 Louisville surpassed 7 Florida.
Image credit: Wiikipedia 
Click here for the most up-to-date March Madness 2012 coverage and Rating Systems Challenge results from RPBlog.

With the defeat of 1 Syracuse by 2 Ohio State, and lacking a surviving entrant in the West regional final, Pure Chalk falls into the second division of the Rating Systems Challenge for the first time. Twelve systems are currently outperforming chalk.

Among the results of yesterday's games:
  • The ESPN/USA Today Poll (preseason) leapfrogs the Survival Model for the top spot, having picked both 4 Louisville and Ohio State to advance. The Survival Model is still tops in correct picks overall.
  • Syracuse's loss knocks out ESPN InsideRPI's National Championship pick. This system is the first to lose its top pick.
  • Eight systems in total picked Syracuse to advance to the Final Four; six picked the Orange to advance to the final game. These systems are concentrated near the bottom of the standings.
  • The loss of 7 Florida to Louisville ruined the AP Poll's (postseason) perfect Final Four. The ESPN/USA Today Poll (preseason) is the only system with its Final Four intact.

Rank System R64 R32 S16 E8 FF NCG Champion PPR Total Pct Correct
1 ESPN/USA Today Preseason 230 200 280 160 0 0 UNC 800 870 99.9 72.4%
2 Survival Model 250 200 280 80 0 0 Kentucky 800 810 99.3 74.1%
3 AP Preseason 210 220 280 80 0 0 UNC 800 790 98.8 69.0%
4 Jeff Sagarin 230 200 200 80 0 0 Kentucky 800 710 90.8 67.2%
5 ESPN Decision Tree 210 220 200 80 0 0 Kentucky 800 710 90.8 65.5%
6 Sonny Moore 230 200 200 80 0 0 Ohio St 640 710 90.8 67.2%
7 ESPN National Bracket 220 200 200 80 0 0 Kentucky 800 700 88.8 65.5%
8 FiveThirtyEight 220 180 200 80 0 0 Kentucky 800 680 83.7 63.8%
8 Pomeroy 220 180 200 80 0 0 Kentucky 800 680 83.7 63.8%
10 LRMC Bayesian 200 180 200 80 0 0 Kentucky 800 660 77.9 60.3%
11 ESPN Simulation Model 220 180 160 80 0 0 Kentucky 800 640 71.3 62.1%
11 Lunardi RPI 200 200 240 0 0 0 UNC 800 640 71.3 62.1%
13 Pure Chalk 220 220 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 640 640 71.3 65.5%
13 AP Postseason 220 220 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 640 640 71.3 65.5%
15 Vegas 210 220 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 800 630 66.8 63.8%
16 ESPN CBPI 220 200 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 800 620 63.2 63.8%
17 ESPN/USA Today Postseason 220 200 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 640 620 63.2 63.8%
18 ESPN InsideRPI 200 180 200 0 0 0 Syracuse 320 580 47.8 58.6%
19 Nolan Power Index 190 160 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 640 550 36.2 55.2%

*Rank sorted by total points (Total), possible points remaining (PPR) and percentage of correct picks (Correct). "Pct" denotes where the brackets rank among the rest in the ESPN Tournament Challenge.

Rank System South East West Midwest Correct PPR
1 ESPN/USA Today Preseason UK OSU L'Ville UNC 72.4% 800
2 Survival Model UK OSU MSU KU 74.1% 800
3 AP Preseason UK Cuse Mizzou UNC 69.0% 800
4 Jeff Sagarin UK OSU MSU UNC 67.2% 800
5 ESPN Decision Tree UK OSU Mizzou UNC 65.5% 800
6 Sonny Moore UK OSU MSU UNC 67.2% 640
7 ESPN National Bracket UK OSU Mizzou UNC 65.5% 800
8 FiveThirtyEight UK OSU Mizzou UNC 63.8% 800
8 Pomeroy UK OSU MSU KU 63.8% 800
10 LRMC Bayesian UK OSU MSU KU 60.3% 800
11 ESPN Simulation Model UK OSU MSU KU 62.1% 800
11 Lunardi RPI UK Cuse MSU UNC 62.1% 800
13 Pure Chalk UK Cuse MSU UNC 65.5% 640
13 AP Postseason UK OSU Florida UNC 65.5% 640
15 Vegas UK Cuse MSU UNC 63.8% 800
16 ESPN CBPI UK Cuse MSU UNC 63.8% 800
17 ESPN/USA Today Postseason UK Cuse Mizzou UNC 63.8% 640
18 ESPN InsideRPI UK Cuse MSU UNC 58.6% 320
19 Nolan Power Index UK Cuse Murray St UNC 55.2% 640

24 March 2012

Rating Systems Challenge 2012: Introducing the Survival Model

3 Baylor was the lowest seed
to win last night.
Image credit: Wikipedia
Click here for the most up-to-date March Madness 2012 coverage and Rating Systems Challenge results from RPBlog.

First, let me take this opportunity to correct an omission. I forgot to add a rating system that I was previously aware of, and I am adding it now. The rating system is called the Survival Model. You can read about the model here. It picked Kentucky over Ohio State in the National Championship after defeating Michigan State and Kansas. It's the fifteenth chalkiest bracket (among nineteen).

And, frankly, it's kicking ass.

While the Survival Model does not have an intact Final Four, it has picked some incredible upsets. This model's superb picks include 13 Ohio over 4 Michigan and 11 NC State over 6 San Diego State. It's one of only two models that put Florida in the Elite Eight. This is why the Survival Model is dominating the standings. It's well ahead of Pure Chalk and has a few steps on the preseason polls, which performed well again last night.

Finally, the Survival Model, Lunardi RPI and Pomeroy are the only three systems that predicted 3 Baylor reaching the Elite Eight. Every other system picked Duke, and we all know how that worked out.

Rank System R64 R32 S16 E8 FF NCG Champion PPR Total Pct Correct
1 Survival Model 250 200 280 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 730 99.7 75.0%
2 ESPN/USA Today Preseason 230 200 280 0 0 0 UNC 960 710 99.3 71.4%
3 AP Preseason 210 220 280 0 0 0 UNC 960 710 99.3 69.6%
4 Pure Chalk 220 220 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 640 89.8 67.9%
4 AP Postseason 220 220 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 640 89.8 67.9%
6 Lunardi RPI 200 200 240 0 0 0 UNC 880 640 89.8 64.3%
7 Jeff Sagarin 230 200 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 630 85.5 67.9%
8 ESPN Decision Tree 210 220 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 630 85.5 66.1%
8 Vegas 210 220 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 630 85.5 66.1%
10 Sonny Moore 230 200 200 0 0 0 Ohio St 720 630 85.5 67.9%
11 ESPN CBPI 220 200 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 620 81.6 66.1%
11 ESPN National Bracket 220 200 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 620 81.6 66.1%
11 ESPN/USA Today Postseason 220 200 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 620 81.6 66.1%
14 FiveThirtyEight 220 180 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 600 72.7 64.3%
14 Pomeroy 220 180 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 600 72.7 64.3%
16 ESPN InsideRPI 200 180 200 0 0 0 Syracuse 880 580 62.4 60.7%
16 LRMC Bayesian 200 180 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 580 62.4 60.7%
18 ESPN Simulation Model 220 180 160 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 560 51.6 62.5%
19 Nolan Power Index 190 160 200 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 550 46.3 57.1%

*Rank sorted by total points (Total), possible points remaining (PPR) and percentage of correct picks (Correct). "Pct" denotes where the brackets rank among the rest in the ESPN Tournament Challenge.

Rank System South East West Midwest Correct PPR
1 Survival Model UK OSU MSU KU 75.0% 880
2 ESPN/USA Today Preseason UK OSU L'Ville UNC 71.4% 960
3 AP Preseason UK Cuse Mizzou UNC 69.6% 960
4 Pure Chalk UK Cuse MSU UNC 67.9% 880
4 AP Postseason UK OSU Florida UNC 67.9% 880
6 Lunardi RPI UK Cuse MSU UNC 64.3% 880
7 Jeff Sagarin UK OSU MSU UNC 67.9% 880
8 ESPN Decision Tree UK OSU Mizzou UNC 66.1% 880
8 Vegas UK Cuse MSU UNC 66.1% 880
10 Sonny Moore UK OSU MSU UNC 67.9% 720
11 ESPN CBPI UK Cuse MSU UNC 66.1% 880
11 ESPN National Bracket UK OSU Mizzou UNC 66.1% 880
11 ESPN/USA Today Postseason UK Cuse Mizzou UNC 66.1% 880
14 FiveThirtyEight UK OSU Mizzou UNC 64.3% 880
14 Pomeroy UK OSU MSU KU 64.3% 880
16 ESPN InsideRPI UK Cuse MSU UNC 60.7% 880
16 LRMC Bayesian UK OSU MSU KU 60.7% 880
18 ESPN Simulation Model UK OSU MSU KU 62.5% 880
19 Nolan Power Index UK Cuse Murray St UNC 57.1% 880