05 April 2011

Rating System Challenge: Think the National Title Game Was Ugly?

So in the end it was Connecticut who won it all: not favored Ohio State; not perennial powerhouse Duke; and not Cinderella Butler.

In what many analysts and fans are calling the ugliest national title game ever--but what more observant individuals recognize as a fantastic defensive effort on both sides--Connecticut polished off an improbable run that consisted of eleven straight wins and a 14-0 record in tournament play.*

*Disclaimer: I'm an unabashed Connecticut fan, and at this moment have no interest in presenting an unbiased view on the subject.

Truly Jonathan, the UConn Huskies' mascot (pictured top right), is sticking is sticking out his tongue not only at Connecticut's vanquished foes but at the ratings systems that performed so poorly this year.

We covered just about everything we could cover in this regard in the previous post, but here are the final standings with the ultimate percentile rankings for each system.

Congratulations, Connecticut!

RNK ENTRY R64 R32 S16 E8 FF NCG CHAMPION PPR TOTAL PCT
1 ESPN National Bracket 220 200 160 0 0 0 Ohio St 0 580 75.5
2 FiveThirtyEight 250 200 120 0 0 0 Ohio St 0 570 72.6
2 Pure Chalk 250 200 120 0 0 0 Ohio St 0 570 72.6
4 Vegas 210 200 120 0 0 0 Ohio St 0 530 56.3
5 Nolan Power Index 230 200 80 0 0 0 Kansas 0 510 47.4
5 Sonny Moore 230 200 80 0 0 0 Ohio St 0 510 47.4
7 Pomeroy 260 200 40 0 0 0 Ohio St 0 500 42.8
8 Lunardi RPI 220 180 80 0 0 0 Kansas 0 480 33.6
8 NCAA Official RPI 220 180 80 0 0 0 Kansas 0 480 33.6
10 Jeff Sagarin 230 200 40 0 0 0 Ohio St 0 470 29.2
11 Preseason AP Poll 240 140 80 0 0 0 Duke 0 460 25.1
12 LRMC Bayesian 250 160 40 0 0 0 Ohio St 0 450 21.3
13 ESPN Decision Tree 230 160 40 0 0 0 Kansas 0 430 14.6

Image credit: Wikipedia

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