Pomeroy switched places with the ESPN National Bracket, which clearly indicates that most ESPN users didn't rely all that heavily on the ESPN Decision Tree tool (dead last).
Just as last week, FiveThirtyEight remains tied with Pure Chalk for second place, although their ranking among ESPN users has dropped six percentiles. This tells much of the story with these ratings systems. The best among among them ranks only in the 93rd percentile, and it quickly drops off from there.
Moreover, picking the best system through the Sweet Sixteen would have won you only 10 extra points over chalk. Not very impressive.
|1||ESPN National Bracket||230||200||160||0||0||0||240||580||93.2|
|5||Nolan Power Index||230||200||80||0||0||0||Kansas||560||510||61.1|
|8||NCAA Official RPI||220||180||80||0||0||0||Kansas||560||480||42.7|
|11||Preseason AP Poll||240||140||80||0||0||0||80||460||31.4|
|13||ESPN Decision Tree||230||160||40||0||0||0||Kansas||560||430||17.8|
More analysis after the jump.
We should expect the Nolan Power Index make a run for first place in the final three rounds, as they're the only system in the top 50% of users that has their national champion pick intact. With three of the four #1 seeds out of the tournament, late-round chalkiness has resulted in a Final Four disintegration for our systems.
Final Four Picks
ESPN National Bracket
ESPN Decision Tree
Nolan Power Index
Image credit: Wikipedia