28 March 2011

Rating System Challenge: Nobody's A Winner

I have to say, I've very much appreciated all the coverage our Rating System Challenge is getting. Major thanks go out to the NY Times' FiveThirtyEight and the Wall Street Journal's Daily Fix blogs. My only regret is that we can't keep it going.

Alas, fate has intervened in the form of Butler and Virginia Commonwealth University. Due to improbable late round upsets, not a single one of the rating systems we're following here managed to pick the winner in an Elite Eight game. Of course, that means that none of them have any possible points remaining in the Final Four or National Championship game.

Exciting tournaments make for boring math.

Here are the final standings for the various systems. The only numbers that will change from here on out are the percentiles, and they'll only sink further.

RNK ENTRY R64 R32 S16 E8 FF NCG CHAMPION PPR TOTAL PCT
1 ESPN National Bracket 220 200 160 0 0 0 Ohio St 0 580 79.8
2 FiveThirtyEight 250 200 120 0 0 0 Ohio St 0 570 76.4
2 Pure Chalk 250 200 120 0 0 0 Ohio St 0 570 76.4
4 Vegas 210 200 120 0 0 0 Ohio St 0 530 58.2
5 Nolan Power Index 230 200 80 0 0 0 Kansas 0 510 48.5
5 Sonny Moore 230 200 80 0 0 0 Ohio St 0 510 48.5
7 Pomeroy 260 200 40 0 0 0 Ohio St 0 500 43.7
8 Lunardi RPI 220 180 80 0 0 0 Kansas 0 480 34.0
8 NCAA Official RPI 220 180 80 0 0 0 Kansas 0 480 34.0
10 Jeff Sagarin 230 200 40 0 0 0 Ohio St 0 470 29.6
11 Preseason AP Poll 240 140 80 0 0 0 Duke 0 460 25.4
12 LRMC Bayesian 250 160 40 0 0 0 Ohio St 0 450 21.5
13 ESPN Decision Tree 230 160 40 0 0 0 Kansas 0 430 14.7

Woe is he who picked his bracket by scientific formula, this year.

Image credit: Wikipedia

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