19 March 2011

Rating System Challenge 2011: Pomeroy Bracket Prevails in Field of 64

I pitted all eleven system-determined brackets—plus a pure chalk bracket and a Preseason AP Poll bracket—against each other in an ESPN Tournament Challenge group to see how they'd perform. Here are the results after the first full round of competition.

PPR = possible points remaining; PCT = performance relative to the ESPN Tournament Challenge community. For instance, current leader Pomeroy as well or better than 97.7% of entries.

RNK ENTRY R64 R32 S16 E8 FF NCG CHAMPION PPR TOTAL PCT
1 Pomeroy 260 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio St 1580 260 97.7
2 FiveThirtyEight 250 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio St 1580 250 92.4
2 Pure Chalk 250 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio St 1580 250 92.4
2 LRMC Bayesian 250 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio St 1440 250 92.4
5 Preseason AP Poll 240 0 0 0 0 0 Duke 1220 240 79.3
6 Jeff Sagarin 230 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio St 1580 230 61.6
6 Sonny Moore 230 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio St 1580 230 61.6
6 ESPN Decision Tree 230 0 0 0 0 0 Kansas 1560 230 61.6
6 Nolan Power Index 230 0 0 0 0 0 Kansas 1540 230 61.6
11 ESPN National Bracket 220 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio St 1580 220 41.5
11 Lunardi RPI 220 0 0 0 0 0 Kansas 1560 220 41.5
11 NCAA Official RPI 220 0 0 0 0 0 Kansas 1560 220 41.5
13 Vegas 210 0 0 0 0 0 Ohio St 1580 210 24.1

Analysis after the jump.

It's early yet, but the chalkiest brackets have the most total points with the most possible points remaining. Clearly, this is the result of most of the systems picking the wrong upsets—and a general dearth of first round upsets. Of the eleven upsets predicted by two or more systems, only five actually occurred.

Upset Consensus (Field of 64)
9 / 8
10 / 7
11 / 6
12 / 5
13 / 4
ODU / Butler
7
MSU / UCLA
7
Gonzaga / SJU
5
Utah St / Kansas St
6
Belmont / Wisconsin
2
Tenn / Michigan
7
FSU / Texas A&M
3
Marquette / Xavier
4
Richmond / Vandy
2

Illinois / UNLV
4

Mizzou / Cinci
1
Clemson / West VA
1

Nova / Mason
5



Memphis / Arizona
1

PSU / Temple
1








Moreover, all twelve rating systems missed Morehead State's shocking upset of Louisville and Virginia Commonwealth's drubbing of Georgetown.

Upsets Missed
Morehead St (13) / Louisville (4)
VCU (11) / Georgetown (6)

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