27 October 2010

Postseason Simulator Marginally Favors San Francisco (50.1%)

10/27/10 TEX SFO
World Series 49.9% 50.1%

At the outset, my simulator projected the chances of both Texas and San Francisco winning their league pennants at 4.5%. Vegas set similar odds. Historically, the odds of two teams with Texas' and San Fran's respective third-order winning percentages advancing to the World Series are even longer: 2.8%. Yet, here we are: one two-seed, one three-seed, and the two lowest WP3 teams representing their leagues in the Fall Classic.

If it weren't for the NL's home field advantage, Texas would be favored with their (marginally) superior regular season numbers. As it stands, the Giants are favored by a measly 0.2%, thanks to the ~1.5% bump they got when a few Giants and several non-Giants led the NL to a victory in the 2010 All-Star Game.

Here's hoping that the 2010 World Series is as exciting as the simulation projects.

Projected World Series Outcome:
Giants 4-3 over Rangers (16.9%)

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